Browsing by Author "Kirnos Olesia V."

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    Risk Level Assesment while Organizational-Managerial Decision Making in the Condition of Dynamic External Environment
    (Національний технічний університет " Дніпровська політехніка", 2018) Zaiats, Yevhen I.; Kravchunovska, Tetiana S.; Kovalov, Viacheslav V.; Kirnos Olesia V.
    EN: Purpose. Forming a complex factor of the project risk level assessment while organizational and economic decision making in a dynamic external environment based on measurement theory. Methodology. The results are obtained through the application of the following methods: scientific generalization – for the formulation of scientific problems and general conclusions; measurement – to assess the project risk level; decision-making – to identify the problems of modeling the tasks of organizational and managerial decision making; modeling – during the elaboration of a risk level complex factor. Findings. The risk uniformity factor is substantiated. It can be used to characterize an investment project in terms of the neighboring risk. This coefficient can be used as a correction one in the formation of a complete evaluation of risk package. Originality. Provisions of quantitative risk assessment in the organization activity in the condition of the dynamic external environment are further developed. The difference from other approaches is the refusal of a priori assumptions about the stochasticity of studied processes and quantities. A distinctive feature of the proposed approach is also the sphere of the risk implementation: it is advantageous to use “risk” not in all situations with random outcomes, but only when this outcome does constitute a significant danger for the decision-making subject. The concept of a “substantial” or “fractional” amount has a convincing objective component, although it is generally subjective. We proceed from the risk concept as a subjective characteristic of the situation in conditions of uncertainty, reflecting possible damage to the subject making a decision. Practical value. The developed methodological regulations considering risk factor influence, based on the offered approach to its quantitative estimation, will increase reliability level of accepted organizational-administrative decisions during the substantiation of project cost and time indicators in the conditions of the dynamic external environment.